Dulranga's Notes
Semester 3MathematicsApplied Statistics

Wording Game of Distributions

Finding out the correct distribution for a problem is a game of interpreting a sentence.

Look at this question,

Info

Shakthi is playing in a chess tournament, where his probability of winning any one game is 0.55. Find the probability that:

  1. his first win is in the third game he plays
  2. he wins exactly 4 of his first 7 games
  3. he wins for the fourth time in his seventh game
  4. he wins for the fourth time in his seventh game, given that he won his first game
  5. his fourth win occurs in or before his seventh game.
  1. Getting the first success from variable events →\to Geometric
  2. Getting 4/7 wins exactly. Total No. of Games fixed →\to Binomial
  3. Getting 4 wins, in seventh game. Total No. of Wins fixed →\to Negative Binomial
  4. First win fixed, then winning 3 times in next 6 games. Total No. of Wins fixed →\to Negative Binomial
  5. in or before. Cumulative. fourth win must happen at least on seventh game. Total No. of Wins fixed →\to Cumulative Negative Binomial

Why Alpha and Beta Inverse in Hypothesis errors

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